British hotels are unlikely to recover in four years, says PwC

UK hotel trade output is set to fall considerably by 2021 due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, a study by PwC has found.

The continued closures, fall in foreign tourists and the near collapse of business travel has seen hotels struggle to attract shoppers, which has had dramatic repercussions on their revenues.

Though the steep decline can be tempered slightly before 2020, it is forecast to reach a growth rate of 52% for London by 2021 and 59% for the regions provided that a vaccine is available by next summer.

This compares with occupancy rates of 83.4% or 75.4% before COVID 19 2019.

The forecast is especially grim for London because of the slow recovery of international business trips and weak demand for business trips, meetings and events.

A vaccine is expected to recover to £64.81 by 2021, though a long-term figure for occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR (earnings per available room) are unlikely to return to levels seen in 2019 until at least 2023.

British regions are expected to be better off by 2021 than the capital, whether or not the vaccine comes into use.

A stronger tourist market will remain a constant force, while unforeseen foreign travel, persistent constraints and local lockouts will further boost the demand for domestic leisure tourism.