Hospitality sector forecasting fewer people employed in 2023 than in 2019

Tuesday, January 19, 2021

The latest EY Regional Economic Forecast estimates that it will take longer than in most other economic sectors for the restaurants and hotel sectors to rebuild the jobs lost between now and 2020.

Only mining (-3.05%) and manufacturing (-1.83%) are forecast with larger deficits in comparison to 2019.

Measured according to Gross Value Added, the hospitality sector is estimated to shrink by 1.36% on average per year in 2023 compared to 2019.

By contrast, the whole of Britain is projected to grow by the equivalent of 0.14% each year.

The forecast points out that this sector will have regional disparities, with the biggest job loss recorded throughout the South West (-1.83% per annum between 2019-23) and the West Midlands (-1.71%).

London (-0.97%) and the South East (-1.07%) are expected to experience a smallest fall in employment.

Christian Mole, UK & I Head of Hospitality & Leisure at EY, said: 'In contrast to previous downturns, London has been one of the most affected cities in the UK, reflecting the pandemic's impact on international tourism and business travel. But in the longer-term, we expect London to recover to pre-COVID levels of activity.